Large areas of Victoria and NSW face above-normal bushfire risk this season, despite increased winter rainfall.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre has released its annual outlook for southern Australia, adding to the northern outlook released in July (see earlier story).

CEO Richard Thornton told insuranceNEWS.com.au increased winter rainfall does not necessarily mean reduced fire risk in summer.

“It has been the warmest, wettest winter for a long time in many areas,” he said.

“This has caused extra grass growth, which will cause problems later due to the increased fuel available.”

Unlike in previous seasons, grass fires will present the biggest risk, he says.

They burn at a lower intensity than forest fires, and generally cause less property damage, but can be just as deadly.

“Grass fires start easily, move very fast and change direction with the wind,” he said. “They can still cause loss of life.”

The fire season in NSW should start late, but prolific grass growth in many areas will lead to above-normal fire potential when hotter summer weather comes in.

In Victoria, East Gippsland will have reduced fire risk, but many other areas will suffer from “late spring drying”.

“This could see rapidly escalating fire behaviour later in summer,” the outlook says.

Tasmania, the ACT and SA can expect normal fire seasons, with Tasmania benefitting from a continuing wet outlook.

Some parts of southern WA have an increased risk due to high loads of forest fuel.

The outlook was released at the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council conference in Brisbane last week.

Mr Thornton says the meeting focused on striking the right balance between mitigation and recovery.

“It was acknowledged that it is always better to invest in mitigation,” he said. “The conference has been looking at how we can start to move on that.”

He believes more needs to be done to reduce fuel levels, particularly on private land. “That is still an issue we need to address.”