Queensland’s northern coastline faces an above-normal fire risk this year after one of the strongest El Nino events on record led to patchy wet-season rainfall.

Most coastal areas recorded below-average rainfall for October to April, while cyclone activity was suppressed and temperatures were high, the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre says in its Northern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook.

“Above-normal fire potential is expected in the coastal ranges from Bundaberg north to around Cooktown,” the outlook says.

Woodlands and grasslands around the Mount Isa region and isolated patches in Cape York also have above-normal fire potential.

Cattle destocking after three years of drought in western and central Queensland has increased fuel loads in the region, contributing to the fire risk.

The region’s main rainfalls came in May and last month, outside the normal period, and the report says the impact of those falls remains unclear.

In WA, the East Kimberly and Pilbara areas recorded record low autumn rainfall, but reduced grass fuel loads are expected to offset the drier-than-usual wet season.

In the NT below-normal fire potential is expected in the southeast, while in the remainder of the region the risk is normal, amid diverse rainfall patterns and pasture conditions.

July to September is normally dry for northern Australia, with low rainfall except near the tropical Queensland coast.

“This means the impact of rainfall in the coming months, even if it is above average, will tend to be quite modest,” the report says.

For Australia as a whole above-median rainfall is expected for July to September.

The bushfire outlook for southern Australia will be released in early September.