La Nina conditions are continuing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with oceanic indicators weakening to neutral levels and atmospheric conditions slower to respond, while it is too early to make accurate forecasts about any switch to El Nino conditions, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

Even as La Nina weakens it can continue to influence global weather and climate, the bureau says in an update on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which reflects shifts between flood-causing La Ninas and drought-driving El Ninos.

All seven international climate models surveyed by the bureau anticipate central Pacific sea-surface temperatures will remain at ENSO neutral levels well into the southern hemisphere autumn.

“While models suggest there is an increased risk of El Nino developing in mid-to-late 2023, model accuracy when forecasting through autumn is low, and ENSO outlooks that extend past autumn should be viewed with caution,” the bureau says.

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures persist in an area around Tasmania, southeast Australia and New Zealand and around the west coast and north-west of Australia and parts of the Coral Sea.

“Warmer waters around Australia, especially in the tropics, can result in greater evaporation, humidity, cloudiness, and rainfall,” the bureau says.