There is little chance of an El Nino developing this year, while spring poses heightened bushfire risk for large areas in Queensland, the NT, western Victoria and southeast SA.

The Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council says there is “about an equal chance” of a La Nina climate driver developing or the El Nino–Southern Oscillation staying neutral, as it has been since April. Neutral means neither La Nina nor El Nino is in play.

Last month was the warmest August on record, and the council says there is a 60%-80% chance high and low temperatures from September to November are above average across most states and territories. 

“There continues to be an increased likelihood of unusually high maximum temperatures across most of Australia,” the council’s spring bushfire outlook says.

Fire authorities are warning of an early start to the fire season in parts of SA and Victoria.  

Rainfall is expected to be above average for much of NSW, Queensland, eastern Tasmania and far southeast SA, while large parts of WA are in line for below average rainfall.  

In Queensland, increased fire risk in the south and central regions is driven by dry grasslands, and large parts of southeast SA and WA and parts of Tasmania received rainfall figures in the lowest 10% of records for the first half of the year.  

Soil moisture is below average in a large part of southern NSW, southeastern SA, Victoria and southeastern WA.  

In SA, predicted above-average to extreme spring temperatures will increase the risk of fire.