There remains a 50% chance of a La Nina weather event developing this summer, but experts believe it would not bring the increased rainfall usually associated with it.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlook for December-February predicts drier weather for northeast NSW and regions surrounding the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Elsewhere, average rainfall is expected, while temperatures are likely to be warmer for the eastern two-thirds of the country.

“Sea surface temperature patterns in the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean are not typical of La Nina, and are counteracting its normally wet signal,” the outlook says.

Climate change may also be playing a role in offsetting the usual impact.

“Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.”