The Bureau of Meteorology says there is a 65% chance of fewer than normal cyclones across northern Australia this year.

Australia experiences about 11 cyclones each season on average, with four crossing the coast, but climate drivers mean the chances of reaching those numbers are slightly reduced, Head of Long-Range Forecasts Andrew Watkins says.

The outlook reflects the neutral state of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Index and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole but doesn’t include indications of the likely size or intensity of any events.

Dr Watkins says that even if the number of cyclones is reduced the chance for a damaging event remains high.

“We’ve never had a tropical cyclone season without at least one cyclone crossing the coast,” he says. “This means that despite a reduced risk this season, all communities in northern Australia must be ready.”

The eastern region, which covers Queensland, has a 57% chance of fewer cyclones, while the northern region, which includes Darwin, has a 65% chance of a more benign season.