An El Nino event, typically associated with heatwaves and bushfires in eastern Australia, could form later this year following the end to climate driver influences that have recently brought wet weather and flooding.

The Bureau of Meteorology last week issued an El Nino Watch, meaning there’s a 50% change of an event forming. This is twice the normal likelihood.

“An El Nino Watch is not a guarantee that El Nino will occur; rather it is an indication that some of the typical precursors of an event are currently observed,” the bureau says.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monitored by climate models reflects swings between La Nina and El Nino conditions, based on changes observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Australia’s third-consecutive La Nina event has now ended with atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the Pacific having returned to neutral levels.

“International climate models suggest neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist through the southern autumn,” the bureau says in its latest update. “However, there are some signs that El Nino could form later in the year.”

The bureau says accuracy when forecasting through autumn is lower than at other times of the year, and outlooks that extend past autumn should be viewed with some caution.