Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to make a sharp westward turn towards southern Queensland tomorrow and could cross the densely populated region’s coastline as early as Thursday, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

The bureau today issued a cyclone watch warning of damaging gusts and heavy rain later this week for an area extending across the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Gold Coast and Byron Bay.

A coastal crossing in the region would be the first since Zoe made landfall at Coolangatta in March 1974. Nancy in 1990 tracked close to Brisbane, bringing heavy rain and flash flooding, while Cyclone Wanda, associated with Brisbane’s January 1974 floods, came ashore further north near Maryborough.

The weather bureau says heavy to locally intense rainfall is forecast for southeast Queensland and northeast NSW from Wednesday as Alfred approaches, potentially leading to life-threatening flash flooding near and south of the system centre. 

“Landfall is most likely late Thursday or early Friday, with the favoured scenario placing it along the southeast Queensland or far northern NSW coast,” an afternoon bulletin says.

Alfred was moving southeast at category 1 strength this afternoon but is forecast to return to category 2 intensity tomorrow. The system was about 465 kilometres east-northeast of Brisbane and 430 kilometres from Maroochydore.

Queensland Premier David Crisafulli says preparations have begun, with generators pre-positioned on island communities that may feel the impacts first and discussions held to assist telecommunications.

“It’s the rainfall that is most of concern,” he said. “When a system like that does cross the coast, generally speaking, you have huge intensities to the south of the system, and that can produce really intense rainfall in a very short window.”

Areas that may be in the cyclone’s path are “reasonably soaked” already, he says, while coastal erosion is also a concern.

The bureau has issued a flood watch for southeast Queensland and the NSW Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast, with locations and severity depending on the cyclone’s path.

Catchments likely to be affected in Queensland include the Mary and Noosa rivers, Sunshine Coast rivers and creeks, the Pine and Caboolture rivers, upper and lower Brisbane River, Logan and Albert rivers, and Gold Coast rivers and creeks.

In NSW, the cyclone could cause major flooding along coastal rivers from the Queensland border to Port Macquarie. Flooding may develop from late Wednesday and continue until at least the weekend.

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