The chances of an El Nino weather system developing this year have been cut from 75% to 50% in the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest update.

Indicators have been close to El Nino thresholds for several months, but the bureau says the patterns have started to weaken.

As a result, the outlook has been downgraded from El Nino “alert” to “watch”.

However, at 50% the chance of El Nino developing is still double the normal likelihood.

El Nino typically brings drier than average conditions to eastern Australia during winter and spring, and warmer days across the southern two-thirds of the country.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. However, the bureau says models suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop in winter and persist into mid-spring.

A positive IOD often results in less rainfall and above-normal temperatures over parts of Australia during winter and spring.