The Federal Government might not have a vaccine for avian flu just yet, but it has a plan in place if the disease hits Australia, according to Department of Health and Ageing Chief Medical Officer John Horvath.

And it’s just as well the Government is prepared. If a pandemic were to hit Australia it would cause about 13,000 deaths and require 57,900 hospitalisations and 2.6 million outpatient visits. It would also result in workplace absenteeism of 30-50%.

Professor Horvath says the Federal Government has two contracts with drug companies in a bid to develop a vaccine against the flu.

When it comes to antivirals, by June next year the Government will have enough medication for 44% of the population. It also has 50 million vaccination packs and 5000 specially sealed body bags ready to be distributed.

On a more positive note, Professor Horvath says the likelihood of a pandemic is no more than it was two or three years ago.

“Avian influenza is very hard to get,” he said. “There have only been about 300 cases worldwide and hundreds of millions have been exposed. So… you really have to get down and dirty with the chickens to get it.”

Professor Horvath says the last three influenza pandemics – Spanish, Asian and Hong Kong – had something in common: they affected the very young and very old.

He says the first known case of bird flu was reported in 2003 in China, but the disease was kept hidden for some time due to economic reasons.

Human-to-human spread would almost certainly have disastrous implications. However, Professor Horvath says the infection of Australian birds is not very likely and the Australian Government has strict customs and quarantine requirements.

“If it does happen, everyone who comes into the country will be required to have a health declaration card, and we already have millions of these ready to give to the airlines.”