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Australia's 2020 death rates significantly lower than predicted: actuaries

This year’s pandemic control measures have saved many Australians from COVID-19 disease and fatality and have also reduced deaths from a number of other causes, the Actuaries Institute says.

The institute update on mortality rates comes after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed there were 24,329 deaths across the nation between June 2 and July 28, compared with an average of 26,229 over the past five years.

Actuaries Institute's COVID-19 Working Group Convenor Jennifer Lang says deaths in Australia in June numbered 400 below the range which had been forecast as likely.

Various non-pharmaceutical measures introduced to reduce the spread of the coronavirus almost certainly reduced mortality from other causes, she says.

“In the absence of Australia’s strict public health measures, including quarantining of overseas arrivals, lockdowns, school closures and other restrictions…it seems highly likely that the deaths in Australia would have been substantially higher than previous years, rather than, as did happen, deaths in June being around 400 lower than the likely range for a normal 2020,” Ms Lang said.

The ABS revealed Australia experienced 682 COVID-19 deaths by the end of August, with pre-existing conditions in 73% or 496 of cases. Among those deaths, dementia was noted on 41% of death certificates, chronic cardiac conditions on 32%, diabetes on 17% and hypertension on 16%.

The data show death rates were significantly lower across Australia, with reduced levels of respiratory illness, including flu and pneumonia. Death from other causes, including dementia, was also reduced as lockdowns, social distancing and wearing face masks impacted mortality rates from other diseases.

Since mid-April, there was only one doctor-certified influenza death during the period. Deaths in May and June, the months when flu normally hits, stayed consistent with previous months this year.

Deaths from cancer, heart disease, stroke and diabetes were broadly in line with expectations but the institute warns cancer screening has dropped significantly.

“The impact of potentially lower detection and treatment rates will take time to emerge,” Ms Lang said.