The Insurance Council of Australia says companies have scaled up customer support resources as people in Queensland and northern NSW hunker down ahead of Cyclone Alfred’s expected landfall tomorrow morning.

Industry analysts expect insurers to absorb the claims impact from the storm, which is on track to be the first cyclone to hit Brisbane in 51 years.

UBS analysts say Suncorp may be more exposed to Alfred-related claims. In a research note, they say the insurer has a greater footprint in Queensland, with a 26% market share across short-tail property classes comprising home, motor and commercial short-tail, compared with 9% for IAG.

In NSW – where heavy rain is likely – IAG’s market share for short-tail property classes is 29% versus 21% for Suncorp, UBS says.

Low-lying areas in northern NSW – including communities still recovering from the 2022 record floods – and southeast Queensland have already had minor inundation and heavy rain caused by the slow-moving category 2 storm.

ICA says the “continued potential impact of [Alfred] remains widespread” and it has not ruled out declaring the cyclone a catastrophe. Such a declaration may be made when insurers have assessed it is “appropriate” to do so.

The peak body’s CEO, Andrew Hall, says the ICA board of insurer and reinsurer CEOs met this morning to discuss arrangements in place to support customers.

They also spoke with Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones this morning about the industry’s plans.

“Insurers reiterated that [they] are committed to supporting customers through this event,” Mr Hall said. “The board … had a very constructive discussion with Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones.

“Weather events are often unpredictable, and Tropical Cyclone Alfred is proving to be no exception. While it’s still too early to know what the true impact of this weather event will be, we know that due to the population density in these areas, we may be looking at a very large number of claims.”

More than 40,000 people were without power today across southeast Queensland, mostly in the Redland, Gold Coast, Logan and Scenic Rim council areas.

The Bureau of Meteorology has started providing hourly updates on Alfred’s movement.

Its latest post on X said the storm was 125km east of Brisbane and 90km east-northeast of Gold Coast, moving at 8km/h. “Mainland crossing likely later Saturday,” the post added.

An earlier update at 2pm said heavy rainfall bands were extending over southeast Queensland and northeast NSW.

“Once Alfred crosses the coast, it is likely to weaken below tropical cyclone strength later on Saturday. However, heavy to locally intense rainfall is expected to continue near and south of the system centre during the weekend.”

The UBS note says cyclone risks appear manageable for general insurers because of the reinsurance pool – a view held by other industry analysts.

The biggest threat is that the reinsurance pool has a 48-hour time limit for coverage after a storm is no longer classified as a cyclone, analysts say.

“While the implementation of the federal cyclone reinsurance pool in July 2022 provides significant protection, insurers could still be exposed to residual flood risk and motor claims,” UBS says.

The pool does not cover motor claims.

KPMG insurance partner Scott Guse says Cyclone Alfred’s potential impact on insurers shows the “cyclical nature” of the industry, and Finity principal Sharanjit Paddam says it “is primarily going to be an operational challenge” for insurers.