The threat of “active assailant” incidents has grown “even in secure states like Australia” and will remain a risk trend to watch, according to Willis. 

The issue, along with civil unrest and crime, will continue for the foreseeable future, the company’s crisis management experts say.

“While it remains difficult to accurately predict the frequency and locations of active assailant events, it is highly likely that numerous instances of these will continue to occur this year,” its latest Crisis Management Annual Review says, adding many of these incidents are linked to socioeconomic conditions or poor mental health.

The report from Willis, part of WTW, assesses likely risks around kidnap, extortion, accident and health, maritime piracy, terrorism and political violence in the year ahead.

Australia experienced a series of active assailant incidents last year, including a mass stabbing in Bondi Junction in Sydney that left six dead and many injured. The attacker was a 40-year-old man with a history of schizophrenia and was off his medication.

Willis flags an “increased trend of lone-actor attacks and the use of mass public violence as an outlet for a personal grievance”. It also cites the stabbing of an Assyrian bishop and a priest by a 16-year-old boy during a church service in Sydney, and an incident in which a teenager allegedly knifed a man in the neck at Sydney University.  

Australia’s terrorism threat level is currently at “probable” and the government has created a police taskforce to address anti-Semitism after attacks targeting the Jewish community.  

“In response to the increasing isolation of young men and a surge in suspected extremist plots, Australia’s national terrorism threat level was elevated,” the report says.  

Willis head of crisis management for Asia-Pacific Will Miller says the region presents a “complex and multifaceted threat environment”.

“We continue to see clients impacted by a wide range of incident types across a broad geographical footprint, affecting both their people and physical assets,” he said.  

“Political instability and the consequences of it are likely to continue and those clients that accurately assess, manage and then act on it are likely to navigate the volatile risk environment more effectively ... Proactive crisis management is the key to navigating these challenging times effectively.”

A quarter of incidents reported by clients last year to Alert:24 – Willis’ incident co-ordination centre – related to threats against individuals or client assets, while 21% were emergency political repatriations of staff or family members and another 21% involved kidnaps for ransom.

Willis says rising populism, divisive rhetoric and socioeconomic tensions will drive continued violence in the Asia-Pacific region.  

“The security agenda will remain dominated by terrorism threats and geopolitical challenges. China ... is likely to sustain a sizeable number of the regional total events. Other higher-risk countries include Thailand, Japan, Vietnam and Australia.”

See the report here.

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