Terrorist attacks can’t always be prevented, so authorities must also focus on resilience and recovery, a strategic analyst says.

Anthony Bergin, Senior Analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told the Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ARPC) risk insurance seminar in Sydney that agencies are good at responding to small and medium events, but not large events where there can be significant “demand surge” for medical and law enforcement services.

He told delegates practice scenarios should be as realistic as possible and draw in multiple stakeholders, including local councils.

The seminar also heard how the end of Islamic State as we know it is approaching ­– but this is not necessarily good news.

Anthony Bubalo, Deputy Director of the Lowy Institute, believes the group has lost up to 70% of its territory and 80% of its funding, affecting its ability to train and direct recruits, and the potency of its message.

However, once the caliphate collapses it will intensify its efforts to attack Western targets, and fighters will travel home or to other conflict zones.

This “diffusion of activity” will make it harder for counter-terrorism agencies to manage and respond to the threat.

ARPC CEO Christopher Wallace told insuranceNEWS.com.au the seminar was a great success, with almost 120 delegates attending.

“All the speakers were outstanding but I was especially impressed by Anthony Bubalo’s deep expertise and direct personal experience in his understanding of conflict in the Middle East and how this conflict spreads terrorism across the world,” he said.

“Anthony Bergin gave an impassioned speech on the need for recovery planning to be a key focus in preparing for a terrorism event.”