Modelling points to neutral climate driver conditions by May, with neither El Nino nor La Nina influencing weather patterns.

All climate models indicate the central Pacific is on course for neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

ENSO describes the shifts between El Nino, La Nina and neutral phases. When neutral, equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are generally close to average.

For now, El Nino persists, although a steady weakening is evident and sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining, the bureau says.

During El Nino, the central and eastern Pacific tend to warm while the sea cools to the north of Australia and around Southeast Asia.

La Nina is the opposite, with the sea north of Australia and in Southeast Asia warming.

The bureau says the global mean temperature for the 12 months from February 2023 was the highest on record at 1.52 degrees above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

The next climate driver update will be issued on March 19.