Autumn temperatures are likely to be above average for most of the country following a summer which ranked among the three hottest on record, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

But the temperature outlook is less clear for southern regions including Victoria and southwest WA as the country’s main climate drivers reset.

Some northern areas may also have a drier end to their wet season, while parts of southern and southeastern Australia are showing a slightly increased chance of above average rainfall in the coming three months, particularly in March, bureau climatologist Andrew Watkins says

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole are currently in neutral territory and international models suggest no change is likely in coming months.

Dr Watkins says indicators of what the weather will look like for the rest of the year will likely become clearer by winter.

“Typically, in autumn our main climate drivers are resetting, which means they’re exerting less influence on our weather patterns,” he said. “This means we can expect our weather over the coming month or two to be driven by more local conditions.”

Parts of inland Australia remain in drought despite monsoonal systems that have brought good rainfalls over eastern regions, helping to extinguish bushfires.

Dr Watkins described the summer as “a tale of two halves”. Rains and wetter weather moderated temperatures compared to the record hot December, but January and February will still rank among the 10 warmest on record.