The southeastern states of Victoria, SA and Tasmania could face a “major” fire season as unseasonably dry spring conditions continue to grip the state, experts warn.

“Climatic signals indicate the continuation of warmer and drier-than-average conditions,” the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre (CRC) says.

“The outlook has changed to a potentially major fire season.”

The CRC’s latest outlook says record warm weather in October means the three states face a higher risk in the coming fire season.

Above-normal fire conditions are expected to hit a larger area of the southeastern states than initially thought.

“In these areas, it is more likely that the resources required to fight bushfires from within a region will be insufficient,” the CRC says.

The warning follows a forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology that an El Nino system is expected to affect Australia in the next few months.

Its latest outlook puts the likelihood of an El Nino event at 70%.

The bureau’s climate models indicate current El Nino-like conditions will persist or strengthen, while above-average ocean temperatures have intensified in the past fortnight.

“The Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Nino development in recent weeks,” the bureau says.

“For many parts of Australia, this suggests below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures in the months ahead.”