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Regional neighbours remain a risk

Credit and political turmoil have coalesced to form a more dangerous world, according to the latest Aon survey measuring global threats.

Its annual Political Risk Map classifies our nearest neighbors in southeast Asia as mostly medium to high risk on legal and regulatory concerns, political meddling and the threat of “interference, strike, riot, civil, commotion and terrorism”.

Measuring nine separate risks, including – for the first time – water and food insecurity, the map shows systemic issues in Africa, the Middle East and parts of southeast Asia and South America.

Of Australia’s top 10 trading partners, only Thailand is ranked medium to high risk, with China, Singapore, and Malaysia all filed under medium risk.

Aon Corporate Insurance Services Divisional Manager Ian Davidson told insuranceNEWS.com.au the report presents good news for investors in southeast Asia.

“There has been a general improvement in the level and spread of political risk impacting on growth and profitability,” Mr Davidson says.

“I think it will provide some additional confidence for continued investment with local trading partners.”

Aon Political Risk Director Miles Johnstone says risk trends from last year will continue into 2010.

“For many companies and across different sectors, including credit and political risk insurance, the business environment remains uncertain when trading with or investing in politically or economically unstable countries,” he says.

QBE is one directly affected by the risk map; Hong Kong, Columbia, Vanuatu and Vietnam – all places in which QBE has a direct presence – received small reprieves based on last year’s rankings. However the insurer will keep an eye on developments in Argentina and the Philippines, whose risk ratings have fallen since 2008.

IAG has small operations in Thailand (medium to high risk) and Malaysia (medium risk).

Nine countries showed improvement from the previous year’s survey, including near neighbours Hong Kong, East Timor and Vietnam.

The Sudan, Venezuela and Yemen have joined Afghanistan, Congo DRC, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Somalia and Zimbabwe as the most dangerous places on earth.