Premiums in commercial lines will continue to fall this year, according to a snap poll of industry analysts conducted by insuranceNEWS.com.au.

Confirming earlier predictions that commercial lines will continue to soften this year before stabilising next year, the analysts say intense competition, robust global investment markets and the relative absence of weather-related events will push prices even lower.

UBS analyst Ralph Butterworth says while insurers are under pressure, there is still room to move.

"We have seen some evidence of stabilisation in commercial lines," he said. "But across short-tail and long-tail lines, I would expect to see softening well into the renewals period. Perhaps we will see some signs of stabilisation in short-tail classes but that would be the best-case scenario."

The JP Morgan Deloitte 2007 General Insurance Industry Survey, released in November last year, predicted commercial rates falling by an average of 3% this year. JP Morgan analyst Shane Fitzgerald says "nothing has changed on the commercial side of things" since then.

"There is still surplus capacity in the marketplace," he said. "It's a fairly fragmented marketplace."

Suncorp CEO John Mulcahy has floated the possibility of lifting premiums to compensate for the company's recent storm losses, but Mr Fitzgerald is sceptical such a rise would be adopted across the market.

Andrew Kearnan, insurance analyst for Merrill Lynch, says rates are "unlikely to go anywhere but down" while investment markets remain bullish.

"Ultimately, the trends in the commercial market are going to be driven by the global supply of capital," Mr Kearnan said.

"Notwithstanding rate reductions, profitability is still excellent in many classes, with more reserve releases to support profitability through 2008."

KPMG expert Andries Terblanche says rates will rise in the long term as claim costs increase and reserves are depleted.

"My hope is premiums will go up, but in practice they will be down in the short term," he said.