Brought to you by:

Predictive modelling to help battle bushfires

The CSIRO and fire and emergency services council AFAC have agreed on the development of nationally consistent bushfire modelling and prediction capabilities, as technology efforts are stepped up after last season’s Black Summer catastrophe.

The operational tool using CSIRO’s Spark platform combines environmental, digital and materials science with input from front-line responders.

“We believe this advanced system will help firefighters outthink fire, to anticipate its actions, and to get ahead of it, so they can beat it,” CSIRO CEO Larry Marshall said.

Development of Spark Operational is supported by the Minderoo Foundation, which last year launched the Fire Shield Mission. The project’s aims include being able to detect and extinguish dangerous fires within an hour by 2025.

Minderoo Flood and Fire Resilience Initiative CEO Adrian Turner says the development of Spark Operational comes at a critical time, with last summer’s experience highlighting the need for better decision support tools.

“The Black Summer bushfires burned with devastating impact, in extremely dry fuels and at a scale that is rarely seen, driving extreme fire behaviour, which meant that the modelling was not able to accurately predict spread,” Mr Turner said.

“Fire services will be able to test this tool during this next fire season, and this pilot project is a critical step towards better supporting firefighter decisions across a full range of fuel types to inform the earlier detection of fires in the future.”

The creation of the national bushfire modelling and prediction capability was recommended by CSIRO in a report to the Federal Government last year, and the agency says it is expected to become fully operational over the next three years.

Minderoo’s Fire Shield Mission has brought together more than 50 corporate partners and scientific organisations, including insurers.

The ICA says it is working with stakeholders to develop nationally consistent models to predict and disclose future bushfire risk.

“The ICA recognises bushfire modelling tools such as Spark Operational will help underpin the comprehensive understanding of bushfire risk for emergency managers, at-risk communities and insurers, so that we can all make our contribution to managing future bushfire risks,” a spokeswoman told insuranceNEWS.com.au

“The ICA is also actively involved with Minderoo and all levels of state and territory governments to expand our national risk intelligence and to take practical action to protect Australian communities.”