El Nino frequency is expected to increase even if the Paris climate accord limits the rise in average global temperature to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

CSIRO research indicates extreme El Nino events will double to about 10 per 100 years by 2050, from the current risk of five per 100 years.

“After this, as faster warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific persists, the risk of extreme El Nino continues upwards to about 14 events per 100 years by 2150,” CSIRO researcher Guojian Wang said.

 “This result is unexpected and shows that future generations will experience greater climate risks associated with extreme El Nino events than seen at 1.5 degrees Celsius warming.”

The research is based on five climate models that provide scenarios after 2100.

The Bureau of Meteorology says nine of the driest winter–spring periods on record for eastern Australia occurred during El Nino years. In the Murray–Darling Basin, winter–spring rainfall averaged over all El Nino events since 1900 was 28% lower than the long-term average, with the severe droughts of 1982, 1994, 2002 and 2006 all associated with El Nino.

Apart from drought, the climatic phenomenon also causes higher temperatures in Australia, reduced tropical cyclone numbers, snow decreases in alpine areas and Increased fire danger in the country’s southeast.