The Bureau of Meteorology says measures in the Pacific and Indian Ocean continue to track toward thresholds that would lead to declarations of climate driver events associated with drier weather. 

The Bureau has maintained an El Nino Alert, with development of an event likely during spring, and says sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are exceeding threshold levels and have continued to warm slightly over the past fortnight. 

“However, atmospheric indicators suggest that the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are not yet consistently reinforcing each other, as occurs during El Nino events,” it says. 

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been in positive territory for two weeks, increasing the likelihood of a positive IOD event developing. But the bureau says several more weeks above the threshold are required before a declaration would be made. 

“A positive IOD typically decreases spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia and can increase the drying influence of El Nino,” it says.