Indian Ocean temperature changes are pointing to possible above-average rainfall in southern Australia this winter and spring.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has strengthened in recent weeks and international climate models indicate the current negative event will persist to the end of spring, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

The dipole measures temperature differences between the west and east regions of the tropical Indian Ocean. Changes can shift moisture towards or away from Australia.

Negative phases typically bring above-average rainfall and cooler-than-normal temperatures to southern Australia, and warmer days and nights in the country’s north.

In 1974 Australia had its wettest year on record when a negative Indian Ocean Dipole coincided with a La Nina event, which arises in the Pacific.

But the bureau says recent models indicate a reduced chance of a La Nina this year.

“The likelihood of La Nina forming... remains a 50% chance,” it says.

If one does develop, it will likely be less powerful than the most recent La Nina of 2010-12, which was one of the strongest on record.