New Zealand’s Natural Hazards Commission is funding research that could provide detailed modelling for the impacts of volcanic eruptions.

The project will be led by GNS natural hazard and risk scientist Dr Josh Hayes, who says it will help authorities quickly assess the reach of ashfall after an eruption and respond to affected communities.  

“A volcanic eruption could affect thousands of buildings around the North Island, and we need a New Zealand model that provides us with a quick assessment of the scale of the damage,” he said.  

“We have not had any major ashfall since Mount Ruapehu erupted in 1995 and 1996, and that didn’t cause that much damage, so our understanding of the effects is highly informed by overseas experiences.”  

The project aims to calibrate overseas models with data from New Zealand. Dr Hayes says having an adjustable tool will be “particularly critical” in prolonged ashfall events.  

“Knowing where the ash will travel and forecasting the amount of ashfall loading that accumulates on roofs in different areas will be the key metric when we assess the damage to buildings.

“Naturally, the reliability of information varies across different sources, so our methodology will factor in the reliability of different post-event data.”  

Natural Hazards Commission research head Dr Natalie Balfour says the project continues the commission’s recent investment in volcanic hazard research.

“NHC has funded projects that have provided valuable insights into how New Zealand homes stand up to different amounts of ash on their roof, as well as predicting where the ash will travel by using MetService weather forecasting,” she said.

The new tool is expected to be delivered later this year as part of a two-year collaborative project between GNS, the University of Canterbury and Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.