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NZ modellers rethink volcano evacuations

The Earthquake Commission is funding research to improve evacuation responses for a volcanic eruption in Auckland.

Current planning could see up to 435,000 people evacuated in a 5km radius, but history suggests the greatest risks are from more contained “surge” flows, where rock and gas heated to 200-600 degrees speed along the ground at about 200kmh early in an eruption.

Researcher Stuart Mead, from Massey University, says some past surges have been within the 5km radius, while flows are also affected by terrain.

“What we’re doing is taking the research that’s already been done on surges, and using computer modelling to get more accurate information about where a surge would travel and create damage,” Dr Mead said.

“We are expecting to better define surge damage zones, which could assist in both long-term and evacuation plans.”

Experts in volcanology, statistics and computer science will use the data to create a model for emergency managers.

The research accounts for part of $NZ1 million  ($918,000) in new funding announced earlier this year.

“Dr Mead and his team will make a very practical contribution to risk management in New Zealand,” Earthquake Commission Science and Education Manager Richard Smith said.