While rising sea levels, erosion and powerful storm surges have not driven property buyers and developers away from New Zealand’s coast, “insurance retreat” may, according to the team behind a new study.

The study is one of three projects commissioned by climate change research peak body Deep South Challenge to explore who should pay for damage caused by global warming.

University of Wellington student Belinda Storey will identify coastal areas from which insurers “are likely to withdraw over the next few decades”, and the economic implications.

Overseas evidence indicates high insurance premiums or unavailability of cover have a stronger impact on private decision-making than the uncertain risk of extreme events.

University of Wellington law lecturer Catherine Iorns will examine “tipping points” at which insurers may refuse cover to coastal property owners, and the subsequent role governments and the Earthquake Commission could play if homes become uninsurable or uninhabitable.

She will reference trends in international climate litigation and try to establish liability for taking or not taking adaptation measures.

University of Otago Associate Professor Elisabeth Ellis will examine how the risks of rising sea levels should be distributed between individuals, insurance and government, and whether it should be regarded as an individual or collective responsibility.

Professor Ellis will refer to international literature on the ethics of risk distribution, while highlighting New Zealand’s unique history and institutions.