The final cost of the Christchurch quake could be as high as $NZ6.18 billion ($4.8 billion), catastrophe modellers have claimed.

A spokesman for catastrophe modellers AIR Worldwide told insuranceNEWS.com.au the firm is “still very confident in its original estimate of insured losses” of between $US2 billion ($2.1 billion) and $US4.5 billion ($4.8 billion).

“AIR also has a damage survey team currently on the ground in Christchurch, gathering more information and surveying the damage from the quake. This information is used to further validate our model.” 

Risk Management Solutions (RMS) estimates total insured losses of $US1.5 billion ($1.6 billion) to $US2.5 billion ($2.7 billion).

RMS Chief Research Officer Robert Muir-Wood says a “much clearer picture” of the extent and severity of the damage has started to emerge, but uncertainty remains in estimating the total insured losses.

“Two key factors that contribute to this uncertainty are the possible under-reporting of insured property values by the market and the potential that claims will be assessed ‘generously’, in particular when older buildings get reconstructed to the latest building code,” he said.

RMS estimates that around two-thirds of the total insured loss will fall to the Earthquake Commission, which automatically covers all residential property owners who have purchased property insurance, up to a limit of $NZ100,000 ($77,000) per building and $NZ20,000 ($15,000) for contents.