The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has forecast a below-average tropical cyclone season, thanks to El Nino-like conditions in the Pacific.

On average, 11 tropical cyclones form in the oceans around northern Australia between November and April, with about half hitting coastal communities.

But there is a 66% chance of having fewer cyclones than usual this coming season.

BOM Climate Prediction Manager Andrew Watkins says while indicators have fallen short of El Nino thresholds, patterns in the tropical Pacific have still influenced the cyclone outlook.

“Often we see a lower than average number of cyclones in El Nino years, but this does not mean we can afford to be complacent,” he said.

“Even during El Nino years, there has always been at least one cyclone to cross the Australian coast.”

There is a still a 50% chance of an El Nino system developing later in the cyclone season, according to the bureau.

The US-based Climate Prediction Centre says there is a two in three chance of a weak El Nino developing between next month and January.