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Man-made perils pose biggest threat: Lloyd’s

Man-made and natural disasters could cost Australia’s six biggest cities $US81.06 billion ($115.45 billion) in GDP over the next decade, according to Lloyd’s.

The market’s City Risk Index 2015-25 – based on research by the UK’s Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies – analyses the GDPs of 301 cities against 18 potential threats.

It says $US4.6 trillion ($6.6 trillion) of projected GDP is at risk worldwide from man-made and natural disasters.

It shows man-made risks are a bigger threat to Australia’s economic security – more than 70% of total GDP exposure – than natural perils such as floods, storms, bushfires and drought.

The five biggest risks in Australia are a stock market crash, calculated at $US43.5 billion ($62 billion), cyber attack at $US14.26 billion ($20.31 billion), human pandemic at $US9.24 billion ($13.16 billion), flood at $US7.63 billion ($10.87 billion) and drought at $US2.5 billion ($3.56 billion).

By city, Sydney has the most GDP at risk with $US27.78 billion ($39.57 billion), followed by Melbourne at $US22.98 billion ($32.73 billion), Brisbane at $US11.17 billion ($15.91 billion), Perth at $US10 billion ($14.24 billion), Adelaide at $US6.3 billion ($8.9 billion) and

Canberra at $US2.8 billion ($3.9 billion).

The projected risk of $US81.06 billion equates to 7.43% of the six cities’ combined GDP, which is $US1.09 trillion ($1.55 trillion).

A market crash accounts for more than half of Australia’s at-risk GDP. Sydney’s projected loss ranks 19th-highest worldwide in this category and 12th for cyber attack, which Lloyd’s says reflects its status as an Asian financial hub.

Australia has significant exposure to natural threats. In the categories of heatwave and drought, Sydney ranks sixth and 12th respectively worldwide.

Melbourne tops the national list for the economic impact of flood and Adelaide for earthquake.

Lloyd’s General Representative in Australia Chris Mackinnon told insuranceNEWS.com.au the report seeks to “raise awareness of threats that are not necessarily front of mind”.

Australians are “all too aware” of bushfire, flood or storm, but the report also highlights emerging threats such as solar storms, human and plant pandemics and cyber terrorism.

“We’d like to see more discussion about risk mitigation and resilience rather than everyone thinking of insurance as a Band-Aid that can be applied [after the event],” he told insuranceNEWS.com.au.

“This requires discussion from top to bottom of every organisation; everyone has to be accountable to demonstrate resilience at their own level of the organisation.

“This report is a wake-up call for everyone to take stock. The findings show the need for governments and the business community to work together to build more resilient infrastructure and institutions.”

In New Zealand, Lloyd’s estimates man-made and natural threats put $US7.52 billion ($10.71 billion) – or 13.7% – of GDP at risk.

Based on an analysis of Wellington and Auckland, which have a combined average GDP of $US57.4 billion ($81.8 billion), New Zealand’s biggest risk is market crash, which over the next 10 years is calculated at $US4.16 billion ($5.93 billion).

Find the report here.