The Bureau of Meteorology has maintained a La Nina watch even as sea surface temperatures and atmospheric indicators remain broadly consistent with neutral conditions.

Atmospheric indicators monitored include patterns of surface pressure, cloud and trade winds.

“While some have displayed La Nina-like signals over recent months, a consistent and sustained shift in the atmosphere has not been observed,” the bureau’s latest climate update says.

The bureau’s model suggests sea surface temperatures are likely to remain within neutral thresholds through the forecast period to February. Only one among six other models surveyed suggests the Pacific could exceed the La Nina threshold for long enough to be classified as an event.

Should a La Nina develop, it is forecast to be relatively weak and short-lived, with all models seeing neutral conditions by March.

The Indian Ocean Dipole also remains neutral. The week ending November 10 marked its fifth consecutive week below the negative threshold, but levels are expected to return to neutral next month. At least six to eight weeks below the negative threshold are required for an event.