The influence of La Nina on atmospheric and oceanic patterns in the tropical Pacific has likely peaked, though above average rainfall in eastern and northern Australia is expected to persist into early autumn, particularly over northern Queensland.

Monsoon conditions may continue across northern Australia during the coming week, the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest Climate Driver Update says.

Models indicate a return to neutral weather conditions - neither El Nino nor La Nina - during late summer or early autumn.

The La Nina climate pattern increases the likelihood of above-average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer and early autumn. Below-average daytime temperatures are typically observed for large parts of the country, particularly Queensland. It also increases the chance of tropical cyclones and earlier first rains of the northern wet season, as happened this season.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently strong and located over the western Pacific Ocean. It has contributed to above-average rainfall and tropical cyclone/tropical low activity over northern Australia during the past fortnight. The influence of the MJO is expected to weaken over the next fortnight as it moves eastward across the Pacific and away from the Australian region.

The Bureau says the MJO - the major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly timescales which can be characterised as an eastward moving 'pulse' of cloud and rainfall – is now east of Australian longitudes.

It says monsoon conditions may extend across much of the breadth of northern Australia, increasing the likelihood of further widespread rainfall during the next week.

“Active tropical weather may persist across northern Australia,” it says.