The La Nina weather system, which typically brings increased rainfall and flooding to many parts of Australia, is looking increasingly unlikely to eventuate.

The latest Bureau of Meteorology update says sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed over the past fortnight, “further dampening chances of La Nina”.

“Only one of the eight models surveyed indicates La Nina for the summer months,” it says. “A La Nina developing this late in the calendar year has only occurred once since 1980.”

The Indian Ocean Dipole has also returned to neutral levels after being in a negative phase since May.

The strong negative dipole helped drive Australia’s wettest May-September in 117 years.