The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued carbon copy wet weather warnings to those delivered last year – before Australia’s record flooding in March – though it says it’s too early to tell if a rare third consecutive La Nina will form.

BOM Is forecasting above average rainfall from Queensland down to the south coast of NSW until October, with an early onset of the of the wet season in northern Australia potentially bringing earlier cyclones. Meanwhile, fire risk persists in many areas of Australia.

“It's important to remember that we were having the same conversations that we're having now this time last year, in terms of the risk of severe weather, the risk of flooding, of wetter than normal conditions along the eastern seaboard – and that's exactly what played out,” BOM CEO Andrew Johnson told a special media briefing.

"There's the risk of severe storms into spring. We are expecting an early onset of the wet season in the Northern Territory this year.”

While BOM calculates twice the normal likelihood of a third La Nina forming, Mr Johnson says it is still too early to tell if it will or not.

“We're watching very closely,” he said. “We wouldn't be in a position to declare it probably until later in the year – October/November is our feeling at the moment.

“It's not likely to form over the next couple of months. If it were to form, it's more likely to happen later in the calendar year.”

A La Nina was in force from November-June. Spanish for “little girl,” it is the colder counterpart to “little boy” El Nino – the forces have the strongest influence on climate variability for most of Australia.

Should the pattern be declared this year, it would be the third successive La Nina – a development seen only three times since records started in 1900.

"We're heading, unfortunately for many communities, for a wetter than normal outlook over the months ahead,” Mr Johnson said. “We do have a La Nina watch out, which means around a 50% chance of a La Nina forming later this calendar year. So twice the normal likelihood.

"Every La Nina is different and it's not until certain conditions play out that we’re in the position to declare it one way or the other. Should it occur this year, it will be a back-to-back-to-back event.”

Mr Johnson said the Indian Ocean Dipole – an index that measures sea surface temperature differences between waters in the Arabian Sea and South Asia – was trending to negative, meaning the eastern part is warmer than the western part.

“When we get that happening, that generally increases the likelihood of above average rainfall for much of Australia,” he said. "They haven't formally moved into a negative IOD phase at the moment but we're expecting it to dip into that space in the next fortnight.”

BOM says a very large number of Australia’s water storages are above 70% full, meaning “the buffering capacity to deal with inflows from high rainfall events is reduced in the months ahead, should that rain fall”.

"The capacity of the landscape to absorb that rain and for our water storage systems to manage those inflows is reduced,” he said, adding that Australia holds around 10% more moisture in the atmosphere due to the climate warming around 1.4 degrees.

BOM also says quite elevated fire risks are present in the Northern Territory and normal, seasonal conditions for fire through “huge areas” of the country.

"Fire, for many parts of the country, is still in play,” Mr Johnson said.