Insurers can manage La Nina claims: analysts
The active La Nina weather pattern could last until autumn, but insurers will be able to deal with any influx in claims, analysts say.
La Nina exposes large parts of Australia to an increased risk of flooding this summer, the Bureau of Meteorology says.
“While the past three weeks have been dry in many parts of the country – due in part to unfavourable tropical weather patterns – it does not signal a weakening of La Nina,” Head of Operational Climate Services Dr Andrew Watkins said.
"Our climate outlook is the opposite of what we experienced last year in Australia. This summer, NSW, Victoria and Queensland are expected to see above average rainfall, meaning we face an increased risk of widespread floods.”
But a note from advisory firm Bell Potter says while La Nina could lead to significant claims events, they should be “manageable” for general insurers.
Bell Potter says that 12 out of the last 18 La Nina events have resulted in “widespread wet conditions”.
But while costs could be material, it takes comfort from the fact the event is unlikely to reach the strength of the 2010-2012 La Nina, and that there is no pending switch to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, which would likely exacerbate wet conditions.
Catastrophe costs “appear manageable this summer”, the note says, adding that “the next few months should not be as gloomy as initially feared”.
Bell Potter Insurance Analyst TS Lim told insuranceNEWS.com.au that since the last La Nina insurers have also increased their levels of reinsurance protection.
“It’s much stronger now,” he said. “It is expensive but you need a trade-off between the cost and the benefits.”