Australian insolvency rates remain stubbornly high, but a further drop in the dollar’s value should help sectors such as tourism, according to trade credit insurer Atradius.

The country recorded 9846 business insolvencies in the 11 months to May – almost as many as the 10,757 seen in full-year 2011/12, which was the highest figure in recent years.

“When we view insolvency statistics that show we are still at almost [global financial crisis-era] levels of corporate failure, those figures become critical, because retail and construction are large contributors to those insolvency figures,” Atradius MD Australia and New Zealand David Huey said.

The high dollar has hit the tourism industry and reduced export demand for manufactured goods and education services, the company’s Australian Country Report says.

Domestic steel and car manufacturing has struggled to compete against imports.

“In addition, the mining services sector is coming under increasing pressure amid lower commodity prices and the fading mining boom.”

However, depreciation of the dollar should help rebalance the economy. It has fallen about 10% against the US dollar since May.

“Tourism and manufacturing will benefit from the lower dollar, and they… represent more than their share of insolvencies in 2012 and 2013,” the report says.

Atradius says the dollar is expected to fall further, to about US83 cents by the end of next year.

“The forecast depreciation partly reflects the expected strength in the US dollar as the US economy continues to recover. Adding to this is the Australian dollar-specific effect of the slowing of the Chinese economy and lower mineral export prices.”

Mr Huey says there is reason to be optimistic about the future, with gross domestic product growth forecast to be 2.7% next year after a slowdown to 2.4% this year.

However, “there is no doubt that risk remains high”.