The Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) has released its seasonal bushfire outlook for spring, saying an earlier start to the high risk fire season is expected as climate influences have shifted significantly since a year ago. 

Queensland and NSW face increased bushfire risk while Victoria can expect warmer weather in the next few months, the outlook says. 

Many regions have also seen increased fuel growth due to above average rainfall throughout recent La Nina years, which is contributing to increased risk of bushfire across parts of the country. 

“We are often asked at this time of the year ‘will it be as bad as Black Summer’…but it doesn’t need to be a Black Summer to be dangerous and it just makes common sense for people to be prepared,” AFAC CEO Rob Webb said. 

“We don’t need any reminders given what’s happened in the northern hemisphere whether it be Greece, whether it be Canada, where we’ve had 700 Australian firefighters and other specialists over there, and of course the tragic conditions in Hawaii.” 

The AFAC outlook says bushfires may be destructive across parts of Queensland as vegetation becomes flammable during the spring months. 

While there have been episodic rain events across southern Queensland during the late summer and early autumn, the general rainfall totals are significantly lower than the past two years. 

“This has led to reductions in soil moisture rates across the sub-tropical and temperate zones, and increased fire activity in these areas,” the outlook says. 

In NSW large areas of central and northern parts of the state are expected to see increased risk of fire this spring due to high fuel loads and the forecast of warmer and drier conditions. 

High forest fuel loads are evident in parts of the coast and ranges not affected by the 2019/20 Black Summer fires. 

“These are particularly noticeable around the Sydney Basin, parts of the coast and north of the Hunter,” the outlook says. 

“The forecast of warmer, and in some areas drier, conditions these areas present increased risk of fire this season.” 

And in areas affected by the 2019/20 catastrophe, fuels continue to recover in response to ideal growing conditions over the last three wet La Nina years. 

“However, high severity fire during 2019/20 fires has altered the way this regrowth is structured,” the outlook says.   

“Some parts of the forest, for example shrubs, are regrowing quicker, other parts are accumulating slower. Overall fuel loads are close to what are expected and regrowth in these areas is being monitored closely.” 

Click here for more from the spring outlook.