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Hawker hangs on as the Big Three disappoint

Insurance is in the news this week for all the wrong reasons, with the three largest local listed players failing to meet their profit expectations thanks to a steep rise in weather-related claims.

Details of the latest results for QBE, IAG and Suncorp are in the CORPORATE section of this bulletin.

Most under pressure from shareholders and ratings agencies is IAG, whose CEO Mike Hawker is struggling to produce the sort of results the market believes the company should be achieving.

With continuing rumours that QBE is running the ruler over IAG, Mr Hawker spent Friday trying to convince the market there are emerging upsides in the group's latest "disappointing" half-year insurance profit of $217 million.

Weaker than expected returns from IAG's investments in the UK and Asia, coupled with a horror period of weather-related claims in the core Australian and NZ markets, is undermining his credibility with shareholders.

Media reports over the weekend suggest Mr Hawker's position at the helm of the country's largest general insurer is now actively under threat, with new COO (and former Promina CEO) Mike Wilkins already taking over most of the day-to-day business.

Respected commentator John Durie said in the Weekend Australian that the market now sees Mr Hawker as "a dead man walking". Standard & Poor's has also put IAG's AA-minus credit rating on negative watch, with a possible fall to A-plus threatening the group's ability to easily raise capital.

Mr Hawker told analysts on Friday the "dramatic increase in adverse weather events" over the past six months, as well as falling investment returns, have done most of the damage. The group is lifting its weather-related claims expectations a further 25% for the second half of 2008, and raising premiums.