The Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation can now estimate the financial impact of terrorist bomb blasts in several cities thanks to new modelling from Geoscience Australia.

The model simulates a range of scenarios in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane, taking into consideration hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impact.

It will help the Government better understand the exposed risk, and whether its terrorism reinsurance pool can cover it.

In the event of a terrorist attack, loss estimates can be updated in real time.

Insured losses are estimated based on potential impact to buildings, contents and business interruption.

Blast damage costs are calculated using building reconstruction costs and the damage sustained by components such as doors, windows and walls.

The model takes into account building size, usage, location and quality. Insured loss estimates can be estimated building by building. The model can also identify city “hotspots”.

Geoscience Australia aims to adapt the model to feature human activity and casualty models, plus urban search-and-rescue metrics such as predictions on people trapped in collapsed buildings. This will aid emergency management and counter-terrorism planning.

Blast scenarios for Perth CBD are expected by the end of the year.