A new report claims there is a 75% chance of El Nino conditions late this year, with experts warning of an increased fire risk for Australia.

The paper, published in the US Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, uses a new technique to forecast conditions up to a year ahead. It indicates “the return of El Nino in late 2014, with a three-in-four likelihood”.

Melbourne University fire ecologist Kevin Tolhurst has warned that Australian bushfires are larger and more destructive in El Nino years.

However, the Bureau of Meteorology says long-range outlooks “should be used cautiously at this point. Neither neutral nor El Nino states can be discounted for the second half of 2014.”