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Flood: Rainfall forecasts questionable

The decision to use rainfall forecast data during a flood crisis should be left to the engineer in charge, the Queensland flood inquiry has heard.

A hydrological report to the commission suggests the need for a new flood mitigation model that has a stronger emphasis on rainfall data.

But Department of Environment and Resource Management civil engineer Peter Allen told the inquiry the decision to use rainfall data should be up to the engineer on duty at the time of a flood event.

“It is very hard to make a hard and fast rule prior to the event,” he said.

“The flood engineers have access to the Bureau of Meteorology forecasters. They… talk to those guys and get a feel for what confidence they place in those forecasts.”

Hydrologist and civil engineer Mark Babister told the commission in a report that a system is needed to give engineers access to collective forecasts for the region.

“If you have eight forecasts based on different weather models giving similar estimates, then you’re a lot more confident that the estimate is probably right,” he said.

“I am not suggesting we throw out the rainfall run-off models – they have a lot of use and are fast – but we should [also] be looking at hydrodynamics.”

He believes this model is more reliable as it can measure how flood interaction occurs downstream.

The commission also heard that some dam operators are concerned over the practical use of this kind of model during a live flood event.

The final hearings will take place this week in Rockhampton, Emerald and Brisbane.