Amid the warnings of increased bushfire risk this summer comes at least one bright spot: weather experts have confirmed their prediction that this summer is going to be a below-average one for tropical storm activity in the Australian region.

The forecast comes from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College, London.

In its latest bulletin, TSR says it has slightly reduced its previous forecast and anticipates that the 2003/04 Australian tropical cyclone season will see “below average” numbers of cyclones that cross the country’s northern coast.

“The key factor behind the forecast is the suppressing effect of warmer than average sea surface temperatures during the [southern] summer,” TSR says in its bulletin.

The forecast includes predictions of the “accumulated cyclone energy” (ACE) index – a measure of cyclone total wind energy – for the Australian region and for cyclones which cross the coast north of Perth and Brisbane. It says tropical storm, severe tropical cyclone numbers and the ACE index are expected to be below the 30-year climate norm in 2003/04, but cautions that very severe tropical cyclones are not forecast due to data reliability problems in the historical record.