Australia and New Zealand face attacks from people with extreme right-wing ideologies, while the massacre at two Christchurch mosques has raised the threat of retaliatory action, Marsh warns.

“Co-ordinated small-arms attacks by extreme right-wing actors in Australia and New Zealand are an exceptional but significant threat,” the broker says in a global terrorism report.

The attacks on the New Zealand mosques in March, which left 51 people dead and 50 injured, were carried out by an Australian man holding extreme views who is believed to have acted alone.

“Following the right-wing terrorist attack on two Christchurch mosques in March, there is an increased risk of retaliatory attacks by Islamist extremists,” Marsh says.

The terrorism threat across the Asia-Pacific region is highest in Afghanistan, India and Pakistan, while countries including Australia and Japan “offer superior risk profiles”.

Globally, religious extremism is expected to remain the dominant terrorism risk, but the threat from the extreme right wing is deepening in Western states.

Attacks by lone perpetrators inspired by far-right ideology are often difficult for security services to disrupt due to the lack of an organising group.

“Low-capability attacks using firearms, bladed weapons or vehicles are likely to be favoured, entrenching a shift towards attacks that generate little property damage but pose significant risks to people,” Marsh says.

Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Yemen and Iraq are the five countries at highest risk of terrorism, while Venezuela, Yemen, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Iraq are most at risk for strikes, riots and civil commotion, according to the report.

Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya and South Sudan are most at risk of war.