Drier conditions leading to greater insured losses are predicted for this spring and summer as the signs point to an El Nino event developing in the Pacific Ocean.

The Bureau of Meteorology last week released data that shows patterns typical of an El Nino event – warm conditions in the tropical Pacific – and has declared that if these conditions persist, this will be an El Nino year.

This follows predictions that next summer will feature an even worse bushfire season than the last. El Nino periods are usually associated with below-normal rainfall in the second half of the year across southern and inland eastern Australia.

A leaked Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment report tabled at a strategic preparedness meeting last month predicts the upcoming fire season could bring the “greatest potential loss to life and property”.

The report, prepared by the department and the Country Fire Authority, says the number of fires and the predicted areas burnt are expected to run ahead of the 30-year average.

It also says there is a “high likelihood” of an El Nino event occurring this year, with the fire season to begin early and be more active in the early part of the season.

“There is across the state an observed lack of rain, increased evaporation, and the strongest predictions so far of the continuation of drier and warmer conditions,” the report said.

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