The likelihood of an El Nino climate event, often associated with greater bushfire risk, this year has risen to 50%, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

Six international models suggest El Nino thresholds may be reached by July, while seven of eight models point to steady warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the next six months.

El Nino is associated with below average winter-spring rainfall in eastern Australia and warmer than average maximum temperatures in the nation’s south. Impacts can include raised bushfire risks, a greater chance of frost and fewer tropical cyclones in the north.

The bureau cautions that model accuracy is lower during autumn compared with other times of the year. The Indian Ocean Dipole, which also influences the nation’s climate, is likely to remain at neutral levels until the end of autumn, based on current outlooks.