The Bureau of Meteorology no longer expects an El Nino this year following a reversal of early-autumn warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

All eight international climate models surveyed by the bureau suggest tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral this year.

While equatorial sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are slightly warmer than average, far-eastern Pacific surface temperatures, which were several degrees above normal near the Peruvian coast during March and April, have cooled.

Trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index are within the neutral range, and other ENSO indicators remain neutral.

The bureau is no longer on “El Nino watch”, triggered by a 50%-plus chance of the system developing.

Three out of six climate models point to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole by the end of winter, which is associated with a dry winter and spring for southern and central Australia.