El Nino conditions will impact Australia’s east in late winter or spring, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

“We’re right near the threshold of El Nino, and the models are predicting we’ll get there in the end,” BOM climatologist Catherine Ganter told insuranceNEWS.com.au.

El Nino events are associated with an increased probability of drier conditions and can be linked to the risk of heightened temperatures, drought, crop failures and bushfires.

During an El Nino event large parts of eastern Australia are drier than normal during winter and spring, while daytime temperatures in southern Australia tend to be warmer – and the likelihood of heatwaves and bushfire risk increases.

Ms Ganter says while the good rainfall of the past two years has provided some “buffering against drought”, it could also increase the risk of bushfire.

“Extra growth from the two wet years of 2010 and 2011 would also contribute to this higher risk for the coming southern bushfire season,” she said.

Various national fire services have also expressed concern about the oncoming fire season due to heavy rain and excessive grass growth, which have played havoc with scheduled hazard reduction burning.

Rob van den Honert of natural hazard research centre Risk Frontiers, based at Sydney’s Macquarie University, agrees.

“From a statistical viewpoint, an El Nino state tends to produce conditions more conducive to bushfires and heatwaves, and a lower likelihood of heavy rainfall and flooding,” he told insuranceNEWS.com.au.

“Insurance losses are likely to shift from ‘wet’ disasters [floods and tropical cyclones] to ‘dry’ disasters [bushfires],” he said.

Latest international reports mention similar conditions for the Northern Hemisphere, with the US Climate Prediction Centre predicting the onset of El Nino conditions for July-September this year.