The worst of the current El Nino is over, with the weather phenomenon – which usually means drier and hotter conditions in Australia – easing from its peak late last year, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

“El Nino remains strong, but continues its gradual decline,” the bureau says. “Climate models suggest a return to neutral levels in the second quarter of [this year].”

The bureau describes the “neutral state” as bringing either wetter or drier conditions, and for Australia it could mean more rainfall, given the impact of the warm Indian Ocean temperatures.

“Neutral conditions are neither El Nino nor La Nina,” bureau Senior Climatologist Catherine Ganter told insuranceNEWS.com.au. “The combination of the El Nino breaking down, and the very warm Indian Ocean, means our rainfall outlook for February-April suggests the southern two-thirds of Australia are likely to see above-average rainfall.”

The end of an El Nino episode is usually followed by La Nina, which is characterised by above-average rainfall, with severe impact on agricultural harvests.

Of the 26 El Nino events since 1900, about 40% have been followed by a La Nina.