While the El Nino weather effect is expected to increase the incidence of drought and bushfires in Australia this summer, it may have one positive effect – by lowering the number of tropical cyclones crossing the coast.

The Bureau of Meteorology says the number of tropical cyclones expected to affect Australia in the coming cyclone season – officially November 1 to April 30 – will be lower than the long-term average of 11.

Climate Prediction Manager Andrew Watkins says this year’s strong El Nino is “very likely to dominate” the coming cyclone season.

“This year we expect fewer tropical cyclones than normal because of the effects of the strong El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean,” he said.

Dr Watkins says the weather effect is expected to continue into 2016, “and typically delays the date of the first cyclone to cross the Australian coast”.

Despite expecting fewer cyclones this season, the bureau is urging Australians in the tropics to start their cyclone season preparations now.

“While El Nino is typically associated with fewer cyclones and a later start to the season, there has never been a cyclone season without at least one tropical cyclone crossing the Australia coast,” Dr Watkins said.

He says even tropical cyclones well offshore can have significant impacts on coastal areas, with high winds, storm surges and large waves creating dangerous conditions ashore.

The El Nino effect is not expected to weaken until late summer or autumn next year.