The El Nino climatic effect continues to strengthen and will last at least into the Australian spring, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest update.

“Oceanic and atmospheric indictors show a clear El Nino signal,” the bureau said.

“Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Nino thresholds for nearly two months, supported by warmer than average waters below the surface.”

El Nino is usually associated with below-average rainfall in eastern Australia and above-average temperatures in the south, leading to an increased risk of bushfire and drought.

The effects can be exacerbated by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently neutral, Three out of five international models indicate a positive IOD is likely later this year.