Fears an El Nino system could bring dry weather and increased bushfire risks this summer have eased, based on the latest outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology.

“While the majority of climate models suggest El Nino remains likely for spring, most have eased their predicted strength,” the bureau says. “If an El Nino were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.”

El Nino systems usually bring below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland Australia, with about two-thirds of these events since 1900 leading to major droughts. They also bring warmer temperatures.

Assessments of an event are based on sea temperatures and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean earlier this year raised the likelihood of an El Nino, but the bureau says there has been a “general lack of atmospheric response” in the past month, leading to some ocean cooling.